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Upstart: Looking For The Buy Zone

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Update - May 6, 2025 The fintech has slipped to $50 despite a big quarter likely due to not hiking guidance.  Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.03  beats by $0.16 . Revenue of $213.37M (+66.7% YoY)   beats by $12.11M . Upstart signed a forward-flow agreement for $1.2 billion with Fortress Investment Group. The main issue with numbers is likely guidance just generally matching current estimates.  Q2 Revenues of $225 million vs. consensus at $226 million 2025 Revenues at $1.01 billion vs. consensus at $1.01 billion.  The stock dips to a $4 billion market cap at the $42 after-hours price, or 4x sales targets. Upstart just traded down below $40, so the stock likely bounces at this level.  Update - Apr. 5, 2025 Upstart has entered the buy zone on the dip to nearly $30. The AI lending stock has just been crushed after rallying to $90. The company will have to report a serious pullback to lending to warrant this dip.  Original article posted on Mar. 30 Upstart Holdings...

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Aurora Innovation: Commercialization Approaches, But Potholes Still Exist

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Update - May 1, 2025 Aurora Innovation finally launches, now let's see if the ramp can begin. The stock is likely expensive for the limited revenues of the next few years due to the slow ramp.  -Aurora Innovation (NASDAQ:AUR) announced on Thursday that it launched its commercial self-driving trucking service in Texas. The autonomous technology company began regular driverless customer deliveries between Dallas and Houston this week after completing its safety case. To date, the Aurora Driver has completed over 1,200 miles without a driver. The milestone makes Aurora the first company to operate a commercial self-driving service with heavy-duty trucks on public roads. -Aurora's (NASDAQ:AUR) flagship product, the Aurora Driver, is an SAE L4 self-driving system that is first being deployed in long-haul trucking. The launch customers are Uber Freight (UBER) and Hirschbach Motor Lines, a veteran-owned carrier that delivers time- and temperature-sensitive freight. Both companies have...

The Trade Desk: Wait For The Turn

  The Trade Desk has dropped from over $140 to below $50 due to fears of an ad market slowdown and reduced growth targets. The digital ad platform only has a fraction of a nearly $1 trillion ad market providing huge growth opportunities for the years ahead. The stock is more attractive at 22x EPS targets, but the business is going through a rough patch elevating short-term risks. The Trade Desk, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: TTD ) has slumped due to fears of an ad market slowdown while the company has previously pulled back from aggressive growth targets. The digital ad platform now trades at a more reasonable  stock valuation after falling from over $140 to below $50. My investment thesis is more Bullish on the stock while looking for a bottom on the falling knife. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Serve Robotics: Intriguing After The Reset

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Update - Apr. 14, 2025  Serve Robotics was chased into the $20s, but doesn't appear very loved in the $5s now. The only change to the story is the better understanding of the new 2,000 delivery robots pushed out towards 2026 with the delivery dates very late in 2025.  Original article published on March 19 Serve Robotics faces significant expansion challenges, aiming to grow from 50 to 2,000 delivery robots by year-end, with revenues lagging behind expectations. The stock has dropped to $7, presenting a more appealing entry point, despite anticipated volatility and potential revenue disappointments in the short term. The company raised $80 million, boosting its cash reserves to over $200 million, but must improve robot productivity and manage escalating costs. Investors should consider buying shares now, but be prepared for a bumpy ride as Serve Robotics scales operations and strives to meet aggressive financial targets. As investors were warned,  Serve Robotics Inc. ...

AppLovin: A Lot To Love Now

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  AppLovin's stock has dropped significantly from its peak due to fears and short attacks. The company excels in AI advertising for mobile games, with ad revenues surging 73% in Q4 2024, and is expanding into e-commerce and connected TV ad markets. AppLovin's efficiency is notable, with a 62% adjusted EBITDA margin and $2.1 billion in free cash flow, before divesting the Apps business. Despite short-seller concerns, the stock remains a promising AI ad tech company, trading at sub 20x EPS targets on a gap close to $175. AppLovin Corporation  ( NASDAQ: APP ) is a prime example of how good stocks with explosive gains shouldn't be chased. The stock soared after reporting great results for 2024 and guiding up Q1  '25  results, sending AppLovin to a record high, but the stock is now down over $300 from the peak due to fears, short attacks and economic fears. My investment thesis is ultra-Bullish on the stock due to the e-commerce advertising opportunity, especially on a di...

LendingClub: Not The Destination

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Update - March 28, 2025 LendingClub with an interesting re-test of $10. The economy has to slump into a recession to warrant even this price, which is below TBV.  Original article posted on Jan. 30 LendingClub disappointed the market with conservative guidance for 2025. The fintech's potential remains high, with plans to double loan originations over time and expand into new investment products, including a rated structured certificate program. LC stock is attractive at less than 10x peak earnings potential, but patience is required for full growth realization. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » LendingClub Corporation  ( NYSE: LC ) is under pressure after 2025 guidance failed to impress. The online lending platform guided to solid growth for the next year, but the company isn't expanding business as aggressively as desired  by the market. My  investm...

Rigetti Computing: Sell On Any Nvidia Quantum Day Pop

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Update - March 21, 2025 Quantum Day didn't go very well. Rigetti CEO appeared to double-down on current quantum technology not being very useful.  Original article posted on Mar. 19 Rigetti Computing, Inc. reported weak Q4 results, with revenues dipping YoY. Nvidia's Quantum Day at the GTC 2025 event could temporarily boost Rigetti's stock based on quantum computing hype. Rigetti's CEO continues to emphasize limited commercial sales in the near future, relying heavily on government contracts and R&D milestones for now. Investors should consider cashing out if the stock surges due to the Nvidia event, as true commercialization is still 5 years away. The quantum computing space could see a major pop on any announcements coming out of the Quantum Day at the  Nvidia  ( NVDA ) GTC 2025 event this week.  Rigetti Computing, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RGTI ) just  reported  weak Q4 results  and investors should hone in on the actual prospects of the quantum busi...